Category: Geopolitics

THE RISE AND FALL OF ISIS

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is an organization that was formed in 2013 when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of al-Qaida’s Iraqi branch, merged with al-Qaida’s Syrian franchise. At its peak in 2014, ISIS controlled a large portion of Syria and Iraq, including government resources, industry, commerce, and agriculture. By December 2017, ISIS had lost 95% of its territory, including Mosul and Raqqa. In March 2019, ISIS was forced out of the last of its territory in Syria and Iraq

Iraqi special forces in mosul after capturing mosul from islamic state(ISIS) (ISIL)

THE RISE OF ISIS

The Islamic State – also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh – emerged from the remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), a local offshoot of al Qaeda founded by Abu Musab al Zarqawi in 2004. It faded into obscurity for several years after the surge of U.S. troops to Iraq in 2007. But it began to reemerge in 2011. Over the next few years, it took advantage of growing instability in Iraq and Syria to carry out attacks and bolster its ranks.

The group changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in 2013. ISIS launched an offensive on Mosul and Tikrit in June 2014. On June 29, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi announced the formation of a caliphate stretching from Aleppo in Syria to Diyala in Iraq, and renamed the group the Islamic State.

A U.S.-led coalition began airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq on August 7, 2014, and expanded the campaign to Syria the following month. On October 15, the United States named the campaign “Operation Inherent Resolve.” Over the next year, the United States conducted more than 8,000 airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. ISIS suffered key losses along Syria’s border with Turkey, and by the end of 2015, Iraqi forces had made progress in recapturing Ramadi. But in Syria, ISIS made gains near Aleppo, and still firmly held Raqqa and other strongholds.

In 2015, ISIS expanded into a network of affiliates in at least eight other countries. Its branches, supporters, and affiliates increasingly carried out attacks beyond the borders of its so-called caliphate. In October, ISIS’s Egypt affiliate bombed a Russian airplane, killing 224 people. On November 13, 130 people were killed and more than 300 injured in a series of coordinated attacks in Paris. And in June 2016, a gunman who pledged support to ISIS killed at least four dozen people at a nightclub in Orlando, Florida. 

RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT IN WAR AGAINST ISIS

On 30 September 2015, Russia launched a military intervention in Syria after a request by the government of Bashar al-Assad for military support in its fight against the Syrian opposition and Islamic State (IS) in the Syrian civil war. The intervention was kick-started by extensive air strikes across Syria, focused on attacking opposition strongholds of the Free Syrian Army along with the rebel coalition of the Revolutionary Command Council and Sunni militant groups under the Army of Conquest coalition. In line with Ba’athist Syrian propaganda which denounces all armed resistance to its rule as “terrorism”; Syrian military chief Ali Abdullah Ayoub depicted Russian airstrikes as facilitating their campaign against terrorism. Russian special operations forcesmilitary advisors and private military contractors like the Wagner Group were also sent to Syria to support the Assad regime, which was on the verge of collapse. Prior to the intervention, Russian involvement had been heavily invested in providing Assad with diplomatic cover and propping up the Syrian Arab Armed Forces with billions of dollars of arms and equipment. In December 2017, the Russian government announced that its troops would be deployed to Syria permanently.

Russia
 Iran
 Syria
Humanitarian support: Armenia
In support of: Syrian Democratic Forces (2016–2017) Russia
In support of: Turkey (2017, against ISIL during Operation Euphrates Shield)
 Al-Qaeda Al-Nusra Front (2013–2016) Jabhat Fath al-Sham (2016–2017) Jund al-Aqsa (2017–2018) Guardians of Religion (2018–) Islamic State Army of Conquest (2015–2017)[9]
Supported by: Turkey  Saudi Arabia (2015–2017)[ Qatar Tahrir al-Sham (2017–present)
Supported by: Qatar Syrian opposition Free Syrian Army Syrian Turkmen Brigades] Jaysh al-Islam[17]
Supported by: Turkey[18] Saudi Arabia (2015–2017)[12][19] United States (2015–2017)[20][21][22][23][a] Syrian Democratic Forces (2017–2019)[24]
Commanders and leaders
 Vladimir Putin
 Sergey Shoygu
 Valery Gerasimov
 Viktor Bondarev
 Sergey Rudskoy
(Chief of Gen Staff. Ops. Dept.)
 Aleksandr Dvornikov[41]
(September 2015 – June 2016)
 Alexander Zhuravlyov[42]
(July–December 2016)
 Andrey Kartapolov[43]
(December 2016 – March 2017)
 Sergey Surovikin
(March–December 2017)[44]
 Alexander Zhuravlyov[45]
(December 2017 – September 2018)
 Sergey Kuralenko
[46]September–October 2018
 Aleksandr Lapin[47]
(October 2018 – January 2019)
 Sergey Surovikin[48]
(January–April 2019)
 Andrey Serdyukov[48](April–September 2019)
 Aleksandr Chaiko[49][50]
(September 2019 – November 2020)
 Sergey Kuzovlev[51]
(November 2020 – February 2021)
 Aleksandr Chaiko[52]
February–June 2021
 Yevgeny Nikiforov
(June–October 2021)
 Roman Berdnikov
(October 2021-September 2022)
 Andrey Serdyukov
(September 2022-November 2023)
 Sergey Kissel
(since November 2023)
Valery Asapov 
 Vyacheslav Gladich [53]
Field commanders of Al-Qaeda:
 Abu Abdollah Jabal  (al-Nusra Front senior commander in Aleppo)[54][unreliable source?]
 Abu Muhammad al-Shimali  (Senior leader)[55]  Abu Hajer al-Homsi  (al-Nusra Front top military commander)[56]
 Ahmad al-Ghizai  (al-Nusra Front security service chief)
 Khalid al-Aruri  (Guardians of Religion)[57][58]
 Abu Humam al-Shami (Guardians of Religion)[59][self-published source?]
 Sami al-Oraydi (Guardians of Religion)[60]
 Saif al-Adel (Guardians of Religion)[61]
 Abu ‘Abd al-Karim al-Masri (Guardians of Religion)[62]
 Sari Shihab  (Guardians of Religion)
 Abu Adnan al-Homsi  (former logistics and equipment commander, Guardians of Religion)[63]
 Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi  (Leader until 3 February 2022)
 Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi  (Leader until 27 October 2019)
 Abu Mohammad al-Adnani  (Spokesperson)
 Abu Suleiman al-Naser  (Replacement Military Chief)[64]
 Abu Omar al-Shishani  (Senior commander in Syria)[65][66]
 Gulmurod Khalimov  (Minister of war in Syria)[55]
 Abu Musab al-Masri  (Minister of war in Syria)[67]
 Basil Zamo  (1st Coastal Division chief of staff)[68]
 Abu Yahia al-Hamawi[69] (Leader of Ahrar al-Sham)
 Nimr Al-Shukri  (Top military commander of Ahrar al-Sham)[70]
 Zahran Alloush  (emir of Jaysh al-Islam)
 Abu Rida al-Turkistani  (Leader of TIP)[71]
Abu Mohammad al-Julani (Emir of Tahrir al-Sham)
Abdullah al-Muhaysini (Top sharia judge of the Army of Conquest and later a senior member of Tahrir al-Sham)
Abu Jaber (Second Emir of Ahrar al-Sham, First Emir and current Shura head of Tahrir al-Sham)
 Salahuddin Shishani  (Former al-Nusra Front commander and current Tahrir al-Sham top military commander)[72]
Abu Salman al-Belarusi (Abu Rofiq)  (Leader of Malhama Tactical)[73]
Abu Ubeidah al-Kansafra  (Top military commander of Tahrir al-Sham)[74][unreliable source?]
12 unknown military commanders [75]
Units involved
Russian Armed Forces:Aerospace ForcesRussian Navy[76]Black Sea FleetCaspian Flotilla[77]Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU)Special operations forcesMilitary PoliceForeign Intelligence Service (SVR)Zaslon [ru][78]Federal Security Service (FSB)Spetsgruppa “K” advisors[79]Wagner GroupArmed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran:IRGCBasijIranian ArmyArmed Forces of Armenia:12th Peacekeeping Brigadeal-Nusra Front (2015–17)[80]Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria[81]Guardians of ReligionMilitary of ISFree Syrian ArmyLevant Front[82]Free Idlib ArmyMountain Hawks Brigade[83]13th Division[84]Northern DivisionJaish al-Izzah[85]Jaysh al-NasrHarakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki (2015–19)Ahrar ash-ShamArmy of Conquest (2015–17)
Tahrir al-Sham (2017–present)Liwa al-HaqqJund al-Aqsa (2015–17)[86]
Ajnad al-Sham (2015–
from wikipedia

JIHADI JOHN

Mohammed Emwazi
BornMuhammad Jassim Abdulkarim Olayan al-Dhafiri
17 August 1988[1]
Al JahraKuwait[2]
Died12 November 2015 (aged 27)
RaqqaSyria
Cause of deathDrone strike
Other names“Mohammed Emwazi”[3]
“John the Beatle”[4]
“Jailer John”[5]
Abu Abdullah al-Britani[6]
Abu Muharib al-Yemeni[7]
Mohammed al-Ayan[8]
Muhammad ibn Muazzam[9]
Mohammed Al-Zuhary[10]
Abu Muharib al-Muhajir[11] Jihadi John[3]
CitizenshipBritish[12]
EducationBSc (lower second-class honours) in Information Systems with Business Management from the University of Westminster (2009)[13][14]
Known forIslamic State beheading incidents
Military career
Allegiance Al-Nusra Front (2012–13)[7]
 Islamic State (2013–15)[7]
Years of service2012–2015[15]
Battles/warsSyriaSyrian Civil WarAmerican-led intervention in Syria
from wikipedia

Mohammed Emwazi (born Muhammad Jassim Abdulkarim Olayan al-DhafiriArabic: محمد جاسم عبد الكريم عليان الظفيري;‎ 17 August 1988 – 12 November 2015) was a British militant of Kuwaiti origin seen in several videos produced by the Islamist extremist group Islamic State (IS) showing the beheadings of a number of captives in 2014 and 2015. A group of his hostages nicknamed him “John” since he was part of a four-person terrorist cell with English accents whom they called ‘The Beatles‘; the press later began calling him “Jihadi John“.[3]

On 12 November 2015, United States officials reported that Emwazi had been hit by a drone strike in RaqqaSyria.[16] His death was confirmed by IS in January 2016.[11]

Early life[edit]

Emwazi was born Muhammad Jassim Abdulkarim Olayan al-Dhafiri[17] on 17 August 1988 in Kuwait[1] as the eldest of five children[18] to Jassem and Ghaneyah Emwazi.[15] The family, who were Bidoon of Iraqi origin,[15] lived in the Taima area of the town of Al Jahra, which was known as a “slumtown” where stateless people were ghettoized by the Kuwaiti government.[19] They were undocumented, considered stateless and without Kuwaiti citizenship status.[19] The family moved to the United Kingdom in 1994 when he was six.[20] They settled in inner west London, moving between several properties in Maida Vale,[18] later living in St John’s Wood and finally in Queen’s Park.[18][21] Emwazi attended St Mary Magdalene Church of England primary school, and later Quintin Kynaston School.[22]

In 2006, he went to the University of Westminster, studying Information Systems with Business Management. He secured a lower second-class Bachelor of Science honours degree on graduation three years later.[22] At age 21, he worked as a salesman at an IT company in Kuwait and was considered by his boss as the best employee the company ever had.[15]

At some point[when?] he became a British citizen.[12]

Nicknames[edit]

Emwazi was given the nickname “John” by a group of his hostages. The hostages said that he guarded Western hostages while handling communications with their families, and was part of a terrorist cell they called ‘The Beatles‘ because the cell members all had British accents.[23] The nickname refers to John Lennon of the Beatles; the three other group members were each given the first name of one of the other Beatles.

The nicknames “Jihadi John”, “Jailer John” and “John the Beatle” were created by journalists.[3] “Jihadi John” was used on 20 August 2014 in the conservative magazine The Spectator in a piece titled “Jihadi John – a very British export” by Douglas Murray, a frequent critic of Islam,[24] and soon after joined by the BBC and other sources.[25]

Victims[edit]

See also: Islamic State beheading incidents

The following are reported victims of Jihadi John:

James Foley[edit]

Main article: James Foley (journalist)

In a video uploaded to YouTube on 19 August 2014, Foley read a prepared statement criticising the United States, the recent airstrikes in Iraq, and his brother who serves in the US Air Force.[26] Emwazi, wearing a mask, also read a prepared statement in which he criticised US and President Barack Obama and made demands to cease the 2014 American-led intervention in Iraq.[26] The masked man then beheaded Foley off-camera, after which he threatened to behead Steven Sotloff if his demands were not met.[27] The FBI and US National Security Council confirmed that the video, which included footage of Foley’s beheaded corpse, was genuine.[26]

On 12 November 2015, two United States drone aircraft[88] along with a British drone conducted an airstrike in Raqqa that targeted Emwazi as he left a building and entered a vehicle.[89] US officials stated he had been killed,[90] and a senior US military official was quoted as saying, “we are 99% sure we got him.”[88] A US official called it a “flawless” and “clean hit” with no collateral damage and that Emwazi was “evaporated.”[90] On 14 December 2015, US President Barack Obama stated Emwazi had been “taken out”.[91]

UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, stated the UK and the US had been working “hand in glove, round the clock” to track Emwazi’s location, and that the drone strike was “an act of self-defence.”[16][92]

On 19 January 2016, in the IS magazine Dabiq, the group confirmed that Emwazi had been killed by a drone strike in Raqqa.[93] The obituary showed him unmasked and referred to him as Abu Muharib al-Muhajir.[11][94] Further photographs showing him unmasked in Syria were released on 26 January 2016.[95]

FALL OF ISIS

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) lost control of all of its Middle Eastern territories by 2019. In March 2019, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the U.S.-led Global Coalition took control of Al-Baghouz, the last stronghold of ISIS in Syria. On March 23, 2019, Baghouz fell, formally ending ISIS’s claim to any territory

Although losing its territories in iraq and syria ISIS is still capable of combat operations on iraqi government forces.

Russia – Ukraine war – 06/05/22(101/120 days) 90 days is culminating point for Russian phase2 strategy of capturing Donbas.

Status

Overall 20% land lost by Ukraine. 80% in Luhansk and 50% in Donetsk. More damage happening to Ukraine due to lack of long range weapons. US and allies now trying to balance the war with long range weapons. War is now concentrated over Severodonetsk. Remaining major Luhansk city. The winning strategy in this war is not on how many weapons or soldiers lost, its how much land and infrastructure you lost.

Possible Outcomes(More likely to less likely)

  1. Russia may decide to stop the war after capturing Severodonetsk and decide to hold on the 20%. War will continue under the hood like how it was from 2014 to 2021. Once the long range weapons are delivered to Ukraine, Ukraine will have the upper hand to create a stalemate in Donbas. Next possible solution to end the war for Russia is threatening to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or chinese invasion on Taiwan. As all of us knows US cannot share nuclear weapons to Ukraine.
  2. Putin thrown out. I doubt it will not happen as foreign media claims. Putin is converting the economic sanctions to gains. More over world and Russian people knows the involvement of NATO in the war and the period of 1990 – 2008 how some countries were destroyed by NATO. Majority of Russians may consider Putin as their savior.
  3. Phase 2 to continue for few more months/years and the entire Donbas is captured. Less likely. I doubt Russia will repeat Afghanistan in Ukraine.

Other possible areas of development

  1. Ukraine may launch a full offense on Kherson.

What needs to be filtered from media

Media shows only Ukraine hitting with pin point accuracy. Russia using conventional ways. What we see is only one side of the war. Most of the Russian media propoganda remains inside Russia. The way Russia attack is to cover all 3 sides and capture the supply lines and then capture them as a whole. Since technology is advanced Ukraine soldiers are able to escape on timely manner.
Within one month of war the propoganda was talking about Russia out of ammunitions. Russia is just capturing Ukraine ammunitions and handing over to soldiers in Donbas and not deperate on ammunitions. I see the Russian strategy of leaving Kiev and holding on to Donbas is working well. The Russian declaration of ending the war is nearby.

Russia – Ukraine war – 04/06/22(42/120 days)

The war is going to a critical phase. Russia retreated after the culminating point(40 days). There is a change in strategy to concentrate on offense in Donbas while defending in the south. The crux of the Russia-Ukraine war is Donbas. NATO was providing lot of weapons from 2014, which Ukraine was using in Donbas. I guess Russia is now concerned about defending the south and trying to take full control of Donbas. The Russian retreat still looks fishy. There is something more damage planned on Kyiv. This may cause the war to enter more deadly phase with NATO getting more weapons to Ukraine and hitting Russian position inside Russia. Russia can create a fake chemical attack and nuke the Kyiv to bring the war under their control and to make NATO go one step back.

Russia – Ukraine war – 04/04/22(40/120 days)

Last week Russia said they will lessen the attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv.
This week Russian troops retreat, so it was a deception attack or to frighten Ukraine. They could have done heavy bombing on Kyiv, but the attacks were less other than some show off.
There was genocide on Bucha area. Most I believe due to heavy fighting. There are instances of purposeful killing civilians too which Russia denies. Possibly they might have challenged the Russian soldiers.
Russia has setup mines to make the recovery more difficult to Ukraine.
To me Russia has changed its strategy on Kyiv. I suspect they are plannig for more devastating attack as one of their major goal of removing Zelensky is not achieved. I suspect with Russian forces retreated, the Kyiv is wide open for a chemical, biological or tactical nuclear strike.
Russia knows they need to sacrifice a lot of troops and equipment’s for capturing Kyiv. So I presume this is a tactical move by Russia. A potential Russian strike on Russian army or city with chemical weapons by Russia, claiming Ukraine attack and a nuclear response strike is a possible chance to end the war in favor of Russia.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/30/22(35/120 days) – Revised from 40 days to 120 days.

  • Phase 1 of operations over as per Russia. Now concentrating on Donbas.
  • Russia pledged to reduce the attacks in Kyiv and Cherniv as part of truce meeting. i.e, Donbas can expect more attacks.
  • Russian arm depot inside Russia is hit with a strategic missile strike. Its interesting how they were able to defeat S-400. Did Ukraine received Cruise missiles? Was there any relation with Indian accidental missile strike? It might be to test the S-400 missiles vulnerabilities than Pakistan defense. Possible chance.
  • Real offense troops for the Kyiv is still hiding in Belarus border. The stalled convoy is to setup defense around Kyiv.
  • I have 100% confidence Putin wants to remove Zelensky out of the power.
  • Zelensky is now in a situation he cannot go for truce without giving up Crimea and Donbas as well as getting killed or captured. He has to fight to his last blood.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/24/22(29/40 days) – 40 days is culminating point for Russian aggression.

Isn’t the same Syria war extended in Ukraine? FSA was backed by US and captured most part of Syria. Some part moved away from FSA and joined ISIS. US came and start bombing ISIS. FSA has given the ground support. Russia entered the war and started attacking FSA in the name of ISIS as they don’t differentiate FSA and ISIS as both were threats for Azad. War ended once FSA and ISIS lost. Same war continued after 2 years of covid in Ukraine. Even if Putin use tactical nuke in Ukraine, I won’t be surprised. Reason : he will force the Ukrainian leadership to surrender and just a warning to NATO to back off from their backyard. If he can decide to invade Ukraine irrespective of NATO having 30 countries, he has the mentality to use nuke also. If he does nuke a city in Ukraine, it is not his last resort of too many troops dies, but rather to end the war by force on the time he decides.

Todays development

Russia destroyed arms depot with long range missiles which includes weapons delivered by West.
Launched a Satellite with name Z to specifically spy more on Ukranian armed forces.
Russia is setting up defense in the outskirts of Kyiv. So their plan looks like to pound with artillary, bombs, rockets and missiles till the city surrenders or weak. Thats what they are doing with Mariupol.
Russia setup SAM and Bastion missile battteries across Ukraine. Seems like they wanted to control the airspace and sea to avoid fast delivery of weapons by west.
As expected the ground troops offense is happening only on Luhansk and Donesk.

Duterte warns: ‘Once Putin resorts to nukes, China will invade’ – Possibly he meant Taiwan.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/21/22(26/40 days) – 40 days is culminating point for Russian aggression.

Current Status

Russia says Ukrainian forces have until 5am Moscow time (02:00 GMT) on Monday to surrender in the eastern port city of Mariupol; Kyiv rejects the demand. So real atrocity yet to begin than thought.

Foreign Media Propoganda

Any idea why these western media cries wolf? Only propogandas not even 1% of the reality.

In The Guardian
Russia’s astronauts enter the space station in yellow and blue flight suits.

Cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev said each crew picks the color of the flight suits about six months before launch because they need to be individually sewn. And since all three of them were graduates of Bauman Moscow State Technical University, they chose the colors of their prestigious alma mater.

UK Mirror
The use of the missiles is the latest sign Vladimir Putin is getting increasingly desperate as his military struggles to carry out his illegal invasion of Ukraine.

To me Russia is not desperate, rather testing their capabilities. The same news channel gives the other propoganda that Russia will invade NATO countries next. Both are 2 extreme propoganda saying on one side Russia is weak and another side Russia is aggressive and strong. They don’t even know how to propogate the propoganda news. They should learn from Indian medias.

Strategy

Russia will have the plan to even nuke Kyiv. When a war is decided, they have all the strategies on controlling the war to their favor. Time only matters for them to change the strategy. The demands in peace talks and show of strength are just to bring Ukraine to understand that Russia have the choice to win the war or make the peace. Mariupol they wont nuke, but will have a more collateral damage with the use of Grad system or Vacuum bombs and more civilian casualities expected. It may be a warning for Kyiv. Ukraine always forgets Russia is nuclear deterrant. Russian plan of leaving Kharkiv city shows that they want to encircle the troops in Luhansk. Same for Donesk. They will be able to capture more Ukranian troops and armed vehicles in a better way. Russian ultimatum on Mariupol city shows their interests to capture it. i.e, Regions near Sea of Azov was their one of the key objectives.