As per western media “Ukraine War: Russia seeking to ‘reset and re-posture’ forces” – to me they are waiting for the southern
troops to reach. Possibly less than a week now.
Russia started bombing on Dnipro, Rivine & Volyn.
Dnipro and Rivine is west and south east regions to Kiev, means the 2 days back cnovey heading from south west(130 kms away)
are very near to reach Kiev boudaries. Only the south west (via Odessa) pending to reach for the final assault.
No where the infantary details is covered by any media. Tanks alone cannot win a war.
Possibly the 60 km convoy have the infantory units.
Possible aggression plan by Russians
What I assume is, they are waiting for full capture of Donetsk, Luhansk and costal regions like Maripaul in parallel.
What Putin claimed of replacing the regime only is incorrect. Putin will annexe Cherniv, Sumy and Kharkiv, fully or partly.
My gut feeling says Sumy and Kharkiv completely. Chances that what we see in the aggression on the map, except the regions
near Belarus, Kiev and south will be spared after the war. He will have a silk route from mainland to Mariapaul
(strategic location for trade via sea for Moscow).
Exactly what he did on 2014 with Crimea. Ukraine may loose <20% of its land apart from Luhansk and Donesk after the war.
Possible Russian long term plan
Next target will be Georgia. Possibly within 2-3 years if they still plan to support West.
What can change the war
The only twist can happen now in the war, is a chemical weapon use like what happened in Syria.
Russia doesn’t need chemical weapons when they have nuclear tactical weapons.
So if it happens we know who did now and in syria.
What is not working for the peace treaty
When Russia added only 1 demand Ukraine rejected it. (No NATO alliance)
When Russia had 3 demands, Ukraine hinted for 2 demands to be met.
Every time when Russia progress, Russia adds more demands and Ukraine 1 or 2 steps below the peace.
The time when Ukraine realize peace is no more possible, i.e, Russia doesn’t have any more demands,
Russsian soldiers might be at their backyard.