Current Status of war
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Mariapaul bombarded heavily and more collateral damage. Russia started aerial assaults and missile attacks on western parts of Ukraine targeting military bases. In Kyiv, they started targeting the areas where private houses are used to stock the weapons. Only 3 side of Kyiv are encircled. Cherniv, Khakiv, Donesk are under constant aerial attacks.
Prediction on war strategy still hold good
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Assault to Kyiv will start as soon as Mariapaul is under Russian control. Southern troop movement is not seen. I believe its media failure to cover it like southeast incoming tank convoy.
Prediction on Russias attack plan on Kyiv
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The Russian EWS and fuel tanks are targeted by drone attacks. This can cause further delays in Kyiv attack plans. Russia can go for an all-out attack with collateral damage to get Kyiv in the planned time.
The wait on Kyiv should be a plan from Russia to minimize civilian casualties. So possibly within 6 days an all-out attack on Kyiv.
What would have happened if NATO entered the war?
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NATO could have entered the war by enforcing a no-fly zone. NATO purposefully avoided a direct confrontation with Russia. If NATO entered the war, the only option Russia was having is to nuke the Kyiv and bring Ukraine to surrender as well as force NATO to backoff from the war.
What went wrong with Russian Plan?
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Media war went in favor of Ukraine and west. Ukraine is shown upper hand in the war. Tough sanctions, Ukraine civilians taking up arms, help of CIA in making sure the weapons are delivered without Russian spy detection have made Russian plans tough and cause further delays in the war.
What went wrong with Ukraine Plan?
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Russia is nuclear deterrent, trusted US to enter into the war and support with no-fly zone like in Yugoslvia and Iraq. Knowingly Russia is nuclear armed, and Ukraine is non-nuclear, Ukraine should have gone for peace including the leadership change to be neutral.
What is US plan?
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US wants all countries to stop trade with Russia , isolate Russia and make Russian people to take up arms against Putin and get rid of Putin. I don’t think it will work with Russia. History showed a regime can be brought down only with another Regime or a weak leadership change. Russia is nuclear deterrent. So, need to wait for Putin to die or step down.
Why can’t US kill Putin?
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Unlike Iran, Russia is nuclear deterrent.
Why do you think Russia will not fail in the war?
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Russia already activated its nuclear armed forces. Supplies of food and weapons via train returned from Western Ukraine is replenishing the Ukrainians to hold the Kiev and other areas. Russia is right now targeting possible weapons depots. Chances of Ukrainian forces from west encircling the Russian forces around Kiev is a possibility. Russia may go for all-out attack on Ukraine with collateral damage if they find Kyiv resistance is too much for a tank thrust. If that doesn’t succeed, they will follow US route in making Japan surrender. i.e, Use vacuum bombs or tactical nuclear weapons.
Where is Russian Airforce?
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Saving fuel and ammunition to destroys NATO convoy and for the final siege on Kyiv. They should be aware that weapons are delivered undetected. Mostly they might be seen back over Kyiv.
How is media helping Russians?
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Media is portraying Ukraine as a hero nation, shows up dead and captured Russian troops, ambush on tanks etc. This make the people believe Ukraine is winning the war. The intention behind the west is to demoralize Russian people and troops as well as make the stingers and javelin more demand as US wants. In every war confidentiality is a must to win the war. The videos given in the online media helps the Russian generals to understand what’s wrong with their plan and replan accordingly. Also helps them to know how Ukraine is defending. Russia is giving only proof of soldiers using civil infrastructure to attack them or store weapons. Russia didn’t expose any videos of their method of destroying Ukraine targets. Russia is getting feedback while Ukraine is not getting feedback.
What is the best US could have done?
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US could have talked to Zelensky to surrender as well as very clear on not supporting Ukraine. Installed a neutral leadership. Doing the help from behind by sending arms and cheering Ukrainian soldiers and civilians is helping the worst to happen, a more aggressive Russia. Post war also this will happen, and Ukraine will become like Afghanistan, Syria and Libya. Just a place for Russian and US insurgents to play.
Moreover, Turkey may also start influencing the country like Libya.
Why is Kamala Harris in Poland?
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One major issue with any war is refugee crisis. Poland is the worst hit and raised concern with US. She is there to handle it. Most probably US may ask other European allies to open its borders.
