Current Status of war
Donetsk is completely captured by Russian Army. First objective of the Russian mission achieved.
Possible Russian objectives in the war
- Ukraine quick surrender. – didn’t work out.
- Donetsk complete control – Done on 05/13.
- Luhansk complete control. Encircle the troops fighting in Luhansk via Khakiv.
- Mariupol complete control. Encircle the troops fighting in Mariupol via Volnovakha and Melitapol.
- Full siege on Kyiv.
- Install former Ukranian pro Russian president.
Possible war plans of Russia
- Conquer Ukraine fully and annexes to Russia. – probability <1%. More forces required and difficult to maintain. No local militia support like Afghan northern alliance.
- Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and divide east and west Ukraine with Dnieper river as boundary – Probability <10% . War may go till 6 months. They will not have enough logistics and resources to support. With economic sanctions, they might have changed the plan.
- Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and Conquer Kiev. Install pro Russian regime and keep the captured area in the east and south under Russian control – Only buffer states required. 1-1.5 months. Probability 50%.
- Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and Conquer Kiev. Install pro Russian regime in Kiev. Station few troops and leave the captured area in the east and south under Russian control, only keep strategic areas like Mariupol– Only buffer states required. 1-1.5 months. Probability 90%.
Possible unexpected turns in the war
- Chemical weapons use. – not ruled out
- NATO direct intervention – ruled out.
What should have triggered the war? – Original root cause apart from NATO provocation
- Did China given the go ahead support for Russia? – not ruled out. China may be preparing for a Taiwan invasion too if Russia achieves the plan. Introducing corona and pushing the Russia to invade Ukraine could be a possibility of response to US trade war.
- Did US intentionally put Ukraine and Russia on war? – cannot be ruled out. They want to avoid further aid. Previous leaders took some bad decisions which Biden might be trying to fix. Doing further aid may cause US business in Iraq and Syria to fail. In Ukraine they want Russia to bleed only and not worried about the war outcome.
Attack plan in Kiev
Possibly within 4 days. Russian troops waiting on Mariupol complete control. Complete control of Luhansk via Kharkiv can be done in parallel. If there is a delay in all-out attack on Kyiv (after 3/19), Ukranian troops defending the Mariupol city to be given the credit.