Russia – Ukraine war – 03/24/22(29/40 days) – 40 days is culminating point for Russian aggression.

Isn’t the same Syria war extended in Ukraine? FSA was backed by US and captured most part of Syria. Some part moved away from FSA and joined ISIS. US came and start bombing ISIS. FSA has given the ground support. Russia entered the war and started attacking FSA in the name of ISIS as they don’t differentiate FSA and ISIS as both were threats for Azad. War ended once FSA and ISIS lost. Same war continued after 2 years of covid in Ukraine. Even if Putin use tactical nuke in Ukraine, I won’t be surprised. Reason : he will force the Ukrainian leadership to surrender and just a warning to NATO to back off from their backyard. If he can decide to invade Ukraine irrespective of NATO having 30 countries, he has the mentality to use nuke also. If he does nuke a city in Ukraine, it is not his last resort of too many troops dies, but rather to end the war by force on the time he decides.

Todays development

Russia destroyed arms depot with long range missiles which includes weapons delivered by West.
Launched a Satellite with name Z to specifically spy more on Ukranian armed forces.
Russia is setting up defense in the outskirts of Kyiv. So their plan looks like to pound with artillary, bombs, rockets and missiles till the city surrenders or weak. Thats what they are doing with Mariupol.
Russia setup SAM and Bastion missile battteries across Ukraine. Seems like they wanted to control the airspace and sea to avoid fast delivery of weapons by west.
As expected the ground troops offense is happening only on Luhansk and Donesk.

Duterte warns: ‘Once Putin resorts to nukes, China will invade’ – Possibly he meant Taiwan.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/21/22(26/40 days) – 40 days is culminating point for Russian aggression.

Current Status

Russia says Ukrainian forces have until 5am Moscow time (02:00 GMT) on Monday to surrender in the eastern port city of Mariupol; Kyiv rejects the demand. So real atrocity yet to begin than thought.

Foreign Media Propoganda

Any idea why these western media cries wolf? Only propogandas not even 1% of the reality.

In The Guardian
Russia’s astronauts enter the space station in yellow and blue flight suits.

Cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev said each crew picks the color of the flight suits about six months before launch because they need to be individually sewn. And since all three of them were graduates of Bauman Moscow State Technical University, they chose the colors of their prestigious alma mater.

UK Mirror
The use of the missiles is the latest sign Vladimir Putin is getting increasingly desperate as his military struggles to carry out his illegal invasion of Ukraine.

To me Russia is not desperate, rather testing their capabilities. The same news channel gives the other propoganda that Russia will invade NATO countries next. Both are 2 extreme propoganda saying on one side Russia is weak and another side Russia is aggressive and strong. They don’t even know how to propogate the propoganda news. They should learn from Indian medias.

Strategy

Russia will have the plan to even nuke Kyiv. When a war is decided, they have all the strategies on controlling the war to their favor. Time only matters for them to change the strategy. The demands in peace talks and show of strength are just to bring Ukraine to understand that Russia have the choice to win the war or make the peace. Mariupol they wont nuke, but will have a more collateral damage with the use of Grad system or Vacuum bombs and more civilian casualities expected. It may be a warning for Kyiv. Ukraine always forgets Russia is nuclear deterrant. Russian plan of leaving Kharkiv city shows that they want to encircle the troops in Luhansk. Same for Donesk. They will be able to capture more Ukranian troops and armed vehicles in a better way. Russian ultimatum on Mariupol city shows their interests to capture it. i.e, Regions near Sea of Azov was their one of the key objectives.

Next set of predictions

My predictions are over in Russia – Ukraine war.

I will evaluate after the war. One Russia announce a permanent cease fire over Ukraine.

Kyiv will be targetted after Mariupol.
There will be a big Atrocity done by Russian troops in Kyiv.
Post war Lunetsk and donetsk completely under Russian control.
Like Crimea , Mariupol is a strategic importance for Moscow and will be retained by Russia to have land access to Crimea and Moscow silk route.

Current status is Sea of Azov access is temporary lost for Ukraine, which shows Mariupol is almost done other than some pocket resistence.

Next prediction is China invasion on Taiwan. Before end of 2022.
This is prediction, so exact date is not the matter, its whether the event occurs or not.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/19/22(24 days – predicted to end in 30-40 days)

What can bring peace now

NATO/US/France can discuss with Zelensky to step down and possibly avoid further causalities. Move his millitary assets to Poland. But NATO countries are sending weapons, cheering Zelensky and Ukranian troops. What Ukraine needs now is not millitary aid, rather food and medicines as well as to assist in refugee crissis. They also need a quick resolution on the war. Do you think Russias concern of NATO expansion is invalid? NATO should have been dissolved after termination of WTO. NATO is just a US strategy to put Europe inbetween Russia and US. They want Russian nuclear missiles to fly first to Europe than US. Its European leaders responsibility to think and decide how to tackle Russia and NATO. They cannot afford to have the same mistake Ukranian leaders did. West says Russia is bleeding and Russian military is incapable. What Ukraine has done is only a bloody nose to Russia. Ukraine is the one bleeding badly. The damage done with collateral damage, loosing of land, military assets , troops and civilian assets cannot be compared with Russian military and troop loss. Its an unequal war West is supporting. West can influence at least Zelensky to end the war.

Ukranian people should realize they are caught in-between NATO and Russia, blaming Putin will not help. Ukraine people only over thrown pro Russian government and they are suffering now. Zelensky is a good leader from one angle only. But he put his own people and country to risk. It takes 20 years or more to come to the stage before war. Zelensky should have been neutral to West and made sure to go hand in hand with their biggest neighbour. Putin made sure he always have some reason to invade Ukraine.

Once Russia begins advance on Kyiv, there is no return for Russia. At that moment Zelensky becomes ready for accepting all demands including the surrender of lost territory, Russia may force to bring Kyiv down. Mariupol had less than 10% of troops in Kiev and more civilians got stuck and the damage Russia inflicted, shows the atrocity they will be planning on Kyiv.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/18/22(23 days – predicted to end in 30-40 days)

Current Status of war

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Expected Kyiv offensive by 3/19. Mariupol is still defending well. Kyiv assault will be still on hold till Mariupol is in Russian hands.
Vladimir Putin To Hold Operational Meet With Russia Security Council.
Russia is hitting military and economic targets. Civialian casualities also increasing day by day.

War strategy

40 days is the “culminating point” for Russia to bring the war to end. Beyond 40 days Russia should change their strategy of the war or retreat as a defensive force to defend the captured territory of their interests. Same thing happened with US in afghan war, after culminating point, they relied on Northern alliance to further progress. Beyond 40 days, Russia will either incur heavy loss or have to go for the worst method of winning the war. Whatever military objectives they achieve now, they will not be able to perform the same way after 40 days.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/17/22(22 days – predicted to end in 30-40 days)

Current Status of war

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Expected Kyiv offensive by 3/19. Mariupol is still defending well. Kyiv assault will be still on hold till Mariupol is in Russian hands. Reason: Like Crimea its a strategic city and Russians would like to annexe it before they end the war.
Russia is using the peace talks to make Ukraine recognize the captured regions Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk.
Peace talk is a mask by Russia. They knows the conditions will never be acceptable for Ukranians and war will continue.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/15/22(20 days – predicted to end in 30-40 days)

Current Status of war

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Donetsk is completely captured by Russian Army. First objective of the Russian mission achieved.

Possible Russian objectives in the war

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  1. Ukraine quick surrender. – didn’t work out.
  2. Donetsk complete control – Done on 05/13.
  3. Luhansk complete control. Encircle the troops fighting in Luhansk via Khakiv.
  4. Mariupol complete control. Encircle the troops fighting in Mariupol via Volnovakha and Melitapol.
  5. Full siege on Kyiv.
  6. Install former Ukranian pro Russian president.

Possible war plans of Russia

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  1. Conquer Ukraine fully and annexes to Russia. – probability <1%. More forces required and difficult to maintain. No local militia support like Afghan northern alliance.
  2. Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and divide east and west Ukraine with Dnieper river as boundary – Probability <10% . War may go till 6 months. They will not have enough logistics and resources to support. With economic sanctions, they might have changed the plan.
  3. Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and Conquer Kiev. Install pro Russian regime and keep the captured area in the east and south under Russian control – Only buffer states required. 1-1.5 months. Probability 50%.
  4. Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and Conquer Kiev. Install pro Russian regime in Kiev. Station few troops and leave the captured area in the east and south under Russian control, only keep strategic areas like Mariupol– Only buffer states required. 1-1.5 months. Probability 90%.

 Possible unexpected turns in the war

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  1. Chemical weapons use. – not ruled out
  2. NATO direct intervention – ruled out.

What should have triggered the war? – Original root cause apart from NATO provocation

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  1. Did China given the go ahead support for Russia? – not ruled out. China may be preparing for a Taiwan invasion too if Russia achieves the plan. Introducing corona and pushing the Russia to invade Ukraine could be a possibility of response to US trade war.
  2. Did US intentionally put Ukraine and Russia on war? – cannot be ruled out. They want to avoid further aid. Previous leaders took some bad decisions which Biden might be trying to fix. Doing further aid may cause US business in Iraq and Syria to fail. In Ukraine they want Russia to bleed only and not worried about the war outcome.

Attack plan in Kiev

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Possibly within 4 days. Russian troops waiting on Mariupol complete control. Complete control of Luhansk via Kharkiv can be done in parallel. If there is a delay in all-out attack on Kyiv (after 3/19), Ukranian troops defending the Mariupol city to be given the credit.

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