Russia – Ukraine war – 03/13/22(18 days – predicted to end in 30-40 days)

Current Status of war


Mariapaul bombarded heavily and more collateral damage. Russia started aerial assaults and missile attacks on western parts of Ukraine targeting military bases. In Kyiv, they started targeting the areas where private houses are used to stock the weapons. Only 3 side of Kyiv are encircled. Cherniv, Khakiv, Donesk are under constant aerial attacks.

Prediction on war strategy still hold good


Assault to Kyiv will start as soon as Mariapaul is under Russian control. Southern troop movement is not seen. I believe its media failure to cover it like southeast incoming tank convoy. 

Prediction on Russias attack plan on Kyiv


The Russian EWS and fuel tanks are targeted by drone attacks. This can cause further delays in Kyiv attack plans. Russia can go for an all-out attack with collateral damage to get Kyiv in the planned time.

The wait on Kyiv should be a plan from Russia to minimize civilian casualties. So possibly within 6 days an all-out attack on Kyiv.

What would have happened if NATO entered the war?


NATO could have entered the war by enforcing a no-fly zone. NATO purposefully avoided a direct confrontation with Russia. If NATO entered the war, the only option Russia was having is to nuke the Kyiv and bring Ukraine to surrender as well as force NATO to backoff from the war.

What went wrong with Russian Plan?


Media war went in favor of Ukraine and west. Ukraine is shown upper hand in the war. Tough sanctions, Ukraine civilians taking up arms, help of CIA in making sure the weapons are delivered without Russian spy detection have made Russian plans tough and cause further delays in the war.

What went wrong with Ukraine Plan?


Russia is nuclear deterrent, trusted US to enter into the war and support with no-fly zone like in Yugoslvia and Iraq. Knowingly Russia is nuclear armed, and Ukraine is non-nuclear, Ukraine should have gone for peace including the leadership change to be neutral.

What is US plan?


US wants all countries to stop trade with Russia , isolate Russia and make Russian people to take up arms against Putin and get rid of Putin. I don’t think it will work with Russia. History showed a regime can be brought down only with another Regime or a weak leadership change. Russia is nuclear deterrent. So, need to wait for Putin to die or step down.

Why can’t US kill Putin?


Unlike Iran, Russia is nuclear deterrent.

Why do you think Russia will not fail in the war?


Russia already activated its nuclear armed forces. Supplies of food and weapons via train returned from Western Ukraine is replenishing the Ukrainians to hold the Kiev and other areas. Russia is right now targeting possible weapons depots.  Chances of Ukrainian forces from west encircling the Russian forces around Kiev is a possibility. Russia may go for all-out attack on Ukraine with collateral damage if they find Kyiv resistance is too much for a tank thrust. If that doesn’t succeed, they will follow US route in making Japan surrender. i.e, Use vacuum bombs or tactical nuclear weapons.

Where is Russian Airforce?


Saving fuel and ammunition to destroys NATO convoy and for the final siege on Kyiv. They should be aware that weapons are delivered undetected. Mostly they might be seen back over Kyiv.

How is media helping Russians?


Media is portraying Ukraine as a hero nation, shows up dead and captured Russian troops, ambush on tanks etc. This make the people believe Ukraine is winning the war. The intention behind the west is to demoralize Russian people and troops as well as make the stingers and javelin more demand as US wants. In every war confidentiality is a must to win the war. The videos given in the online media helps the Russian generals to understand what’s wrong with their plan and replan accordingly. Also helps them to know how Ukraine is defending. Russia is giving only proof of soldiers using civil infrastructure to attack them or store weapons. Russia didn’t expose any videos of their method of destroying Ukraine targets. Russia is getting feedback while Ukraine is not getting feedback.

What is the best US could have done?


US could have talked to Zelensky to surrender as well as very clear on not supporting Ukraine. Installed a neutral leadership. Doing the help from behind by sending arms and cheering Ukrainian soldiers and civilians is helping the worst to happen, a more aggressive Russia. Post war also this will happen, and Ukraine will become like Afghanistan, Syria and Libya. Just a place for Russian and US insurgents to play.

Moreover, Turkey may also start influencing the country like Libya.

Why is Kamala Harris in Poland?


One major issue with any war is refugee crisis. Poland is the worst hit and raised concern with US. She is there to handle it. Most probably US may ask other European allies to open its borders.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/11/2022

Prediction on war strategy still hold good . War is moving towards the same strategy of covering Kiev from all sides. Till now pending was south and east troop movements towards Kiev, they will also wait near the Ukraine defense setup in south and east. Some thing which I didn’t foresee early was the capture of east and south territories of Russian interests. Russia will wait for the areas they wanted to hold post war in East and South. Once that is done final assault on Kiev. If they now capture Kiev war will end soon and they cannot further capture territory of their interests.

Prediction on Russias attack plan on Kiev

The first wave should be to use jammer or electro magnetic pulses to bring all electronic equipment’s working inside Kiev to fail or not working, won’t be surprised to use some method to even blind the satellites too. Ukranian troops may not be even able to communicate each other between north, west, south and east. They have to use traditional methods of communication. It will be a complete electronic blackout in Kiev. Then will follow with precision strikes by missile and bombers, shelling and thrust of tank convoy inside Kiev from all the 4 sides. Russian satellites, drones might have already scanned the defense of Ukraine. We should see some new methods of war. One single assault on Kiev will change the way world will see how capable Russian army is. Opening for a new arms race which China and Russia will become the first mover.

Pending checklist items in Russian war plan to attack Kiev

  1. Capture of Kharkiv
  2. Capture of Mariapaul
  3. Troops from southern side to Reach Kiev.

Russia Ukraine War – 03/11/22

Current status

As per western media “Ukraine War: Russia seeking to ‘reset and re-posture’ forces” – to me they are waiting for the southern
troops to reach. Possibly less than a week now.
Russia started bombing on Dnipro, Rivine & Volyn.
Dnipro and Rivine is west and south east regions to Kiev, means the 2 days back cnovey heading from south west(130 kms away)
are very near to reach Kiev boudaries. Only the south west (via Odessa) pending to reach for the final assault.

No where the infantary details is covered by any media. Tanks alone cannot win a war.
Possibly the 60 km convoy have the infantory units.

Possible aggression plan by Russians

What I assume is, they are waiting for full capture of Donetsk, Luhansk and costal regions like Maripaul in parallel.

What Putin claimed of replacing the regime only is incorrect. Putin will annexe Cherniv, Sumy and Kharkiv, fully or partly.
My gut feeling says Sumy and Kharkiv completely. Chances that what we see in the aggression on the map, except the regions
near Belarus, Kiev and south will be spared after the war. He will have a silk route from mainland to Mariapaul
(strategic location for trade via sea for Moscow).
Exactly what he did on 2014 with Crimea. Ukraine may loose <20% of its land apart from Luhansk and Donesk after the war.

Possible Russian long term plan

Next target will be Georgia. Possibly within 2-3 years if they still plan to support West.

What can change the war

The only twist can happen now in the war, is a chemical weapon use like what happened in Syria.
Russia doesn’t need chemical weapons when they have nuclear tactical weapons.
So if it happens we know who did now and in syria.

What is not working for the peace treaty

When Russia added only 1 demand Ukraine rejected it. (No NATO alliance)
When Russia had 3 demands, Ukraine hinted for 2 demands to be met.
Every time when Russia progress, Russia adds more demands and Ukraine 1 or 2 steps below the peace.
The time when Ukraine realize peace is no more possible, i.e, Russia doesn’t have any more demands,
Russsian soldiers might be at their backyard.

How to check the disk performance using dd

dd command should be available in ESXi as well as all Linux versions. If you face any issues with your application and wants to know the disk performance is deteriorated, you can quickly use the dd command to check the write/read performance of the disk. The disk used can be even a datastore or a network device also. You can cross check with another system or disk where you don’t see any performance issues to compare the results to know if there is any issues with the disk.

Below is the example to run in a VMWare ESXi volume.

/vmfs/volumes/54a55c07-9face633-0999-002590fc98c8 # time dd if=/dev/zero of=test bs=1M count=1024

1024+0 records in 1024+0 records out

real 2m 7.62s user 0m 4.69s sys 0m 0.00s

= ( 1024/127 = 8 MB/s !!! )

In the above example you are trying to write a 1GB file and you are using time command to find out the speed at which the write happened.

Source: Horrible disk performance under ESXi | [H]ard|Forum

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