Overall 20% land lost by Ukraine. 80% in Luhansk and 50% in Donetsk. More damage happening to Ukraine due to lack of long range weapons. US and allies now trying to balance the war with long range weapons. War is now concentrated over Severodonetsk. Remaining major Luhansk city. The winning strategy in this war is not on how many weapons or soldiers lost, its how much land and infrastructure you lost.
Possible Outcomes(More likely to less likely)
- Russia may decide to stop the war after capturing Severodonetsk and decide to hold on the 20%. War will continue under the hood like how it was from 2014 to 2021. Once the long range weapons are delivered to Ukraine, Ukraine will have the upper hand to create a stalemate in Donbas. Next possible solution to end the war for Russia is threatening to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or chinese invasion on Taiwan. As all of us knows US cannot share nuclear weapons to Ukraine.
- Putin thrown out. I doubt it will not happen as foreign media claims. Putin is converting the economic sanctions to gains. More over world and Russian people knows the involvement of NATO in the war and the period of 1990 – 2008 how some countries were destroyed by NATO. Majority of Russians may consider Putin as their savior.
- Phase 2 to continue for few more months/years and the entire Donbas is captured. Less likely. I doubt Russia will repeat Afghanistan in Ukraine.
Other possible areas of development
- Ukraine may launch a full offense on Kherson.
What needs to be filtered from media
Media shows only Ukraine hitting with pin point accuracy. Russia using conventional ways. What we see is only one side of the war. Most of the Russian media propoganda remains inside Russia. The way Russia attack is to cover all 3 sides and capture the supply lines and then capture them as a whole. Since technology is advanced Ukraine soldiers are able to escape on timely manner.
Within one month of war the propoganda was talking about Russia out of ammunitions. Russia is just capturing Ukraine ammunitions and handing over to soldiers in Donbas and not deperate on ammunitions. I see the Russian strategy of leaving Kiev and holding on to Donbas is working well. The Russian declaration of ending the war is nearby.
Russia still have the opportunity to use tactical nuclear weapons. I still believe there is something big to happen. Like Taiwan invasion or nuclear or chemical weapon use. There will be a major twist to war were Ukraine will blame on US for backstabbing towards the end of the war.
For Putin, meeting his goals is his ultimate objectives. He don’t care how many equipment’s destroyed or troops killed. For Russia its show off power, control of the region and clearing the arsenal to make way for the new are the priorities in the war. For US its a business in the name of protection they right now might have got lot of orders from other Russian neighbors including Japan. Why didn’t US asked its allies to send patriots instead of S300? If it gets destroyed, their business plans will get impacted. Ukraine is the scapegoat of this war. So if Russia wants to end the war, they can either create a new flash point which is of more interest for US(e.g:- Taiwan) or bring the war to abruptly end via tactical nuclear weapon use. Their priority is Donbas and securing Crimea permanently. Once that is achieved only we will know what are their phase 3 plans. Since Ukraine lost a lot of territory Russia is already into a long term war where they need to change the strategy again after the phase 2 culminating point (~90 days). So they can end the war with a strategy which will end the US interests in Ukraine. The threats from Russia to baltic area is just a mockery. Even if Finland and Sweden joins NATO, Russia will not attack them as they already have nuclear weapons in baltic area. Finland/Sweden cannot be compared to Ukraine w.r.t Russia’s interest. At least my prediction on culminating point for 40 days went correct as Russia changed the strategy in ~38 days instead of a stalemate or more loss than advantages. Russia moved out of Kyiv and changed strategy on Donbas only. The recent disclosure from the Chechniyan leader points that Russia has intentions to get Kyiv and remaining part also conquered. So a phase 3 is also expected.
“Russia shot down a cargo plane carrying foreign aid weapons sent to Ukraine over Odesha” That’s the power of S-400. Striking at enemy aircraft from your own controlled territory. Possibly Moskva sunk by a foreign made anit-ship missile than Neptune. If it was Neptune they don’t need 50 days to try.
The war is going to a critical phase. Russia retreated after the culminating point(40 days). There is a change in strategy to concentrate on offense in Donbas while defending in the south. The crux of the Russia-Ukraine war is Donbas. NATO was providing lot of weapons from 2014, which Ukraine was using in Donbas. I guess Russia is now concerned about defending the south and trying to take full control of Donbas. The Russian retreat still looks fishy. There is something more damage planned on Kyiv. This may cause the war to enter more deadly phase with NATO getting more weapons to Ukraine and hitting Russian position inside Russia. Russia can create a fake chemical attack and nuke the Kyiv to bring the war under their control and to make NATO go one step back.
Last week Russia said they will lessen the attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv.
This week Russian troops retreat, so it was a deception attack or to frighten Ukraine. They could have done heavy bombing on Kyiv, but the attacks were less other than some show off.
There was genocide on Bucha area. Most I believe due to heavy fighting. There are instances of purposeful killing civilians too which Russia denies. Possibly they might have challenged the Russian soldiers.
Russia has setup mines to make the recovery more difficult to Ukraine.
To me Russia has changed its strategy on Kyiv. I suspect they are plannig for more devastating attack as one of their major goal of removing Zelensky is not achieved. I suspect with Russian forces retreated, the Kyiv is wide open for a chemical, biological or tactical nuclear strike.
Russia knows they need to sacrifice a lot of troops and equipment’s for capturing Kyiv. So I presume this is a tactical move by Russia. A potential Russian strike on Russian army or city with chemical weapons by Russia, claiming Ukraine attack and a nuclear response strike is a possible chance to end the war in favor of Russia.
Isn’t the same Syria war extended in Ukraine? FSA was backed by US and captured most part of Syria. Some part moved away from FSA and joined ISIS. US came and start bombing ISIS. FSA has given the ground support. Russia entered the war and started attacking FSA in the name of ISIS as they don’t differentiate FSA and ISIS as both were threats for Azad. War ended once FSA and ISIS lost. Same war continued after 2 years of covid in Ukraine. Even if Putin use tactical nuke in Ukraine, I won’t be surprised. Reason : he will force the Ukrainian leadership to surrender and just a warning to NATO to back off from their backyard. If he can decide to invade Ukraine irrespective of NATO having 30 countries, he has the mentality to use nuke also. If he does nuke a city in Ukraine, it is not his last resort of too many troops dies, but rather to end the war by force on the time he decides.
Russia destroyed arms depot with long range missiles which includes weapons delivered by West.
Launched a Satellite with name Z to specifically spy more on Ukranian armed forces.
Russia is setting up defense in the outskirts of Kyiv. So their plan looks like to pound with artillary, bombs, rockets and missiles till the city surrenders or weak. Thats what they are doing with Mariupol.
Russia setup SAM and Bastion missile battteries across Ukraine. Seems like they wanted to control the airspace and sea to avoid fast delivery of weapons by west.
As expected the ground troops offense is happening only on Luhansk and Donesk.
Duterte warns: ‘Once Putin resorts to nukes, China will invade’ – Possibly he meant Taiwan.
Russia says Ukrainian forces have until 5am Moscow time (02:00 GMT) on Monday to surrender in the eastern port city of Mariupol; Kyiv rejects the demand. So real atrocity yet to begin than thought.
Foreign Media Propoganda
Any idea why these western media cries wolf? Only propogandas not even 1% of the reality.
In The Guardian
Russia’s astronauts enter the space station in yellow and blue flight suits.
Cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev said each crew picks the color of the flight suits about six months before launch because they need to be individually sewn. And since all three of them were graduates of Bauman Moscow State Technical University, they chose the colors of their prestigious alma mater.
The use of the missiles is the latest sign Vladimir Putin is getting increasingly desperate as his military struggles to carry out his illegal invasion of Ukraine.
To me Russia is not desperate, rather testing their capabilities. The same news channel gives the other propoganda that Russia will invade NATO countries next. Both are 2 extreme propoganda saying on one side Russia is weak and another side Russia is aggressive and strong. They don’t even know how to propogate the propoganda news. They should learn from Indian medias.
Russia will have the plan to even nuke Kyiv. When a war is decided, they have all the strategies on controlling the war to their favor. Time only matters for them to change the strategy. The demands in peace talks and show of strength are just to bring Ukraine to understand that Russia have the choice to win the war or make the peace. Mariupol they wont nuke, but will have a more collateral damage with the use of Grad system or Vacuum bombs and more civilian casualities expected. It may be a warning for Kyiv. Ukraine always forgets Russia is nuclear deterrant. Russian plan of leaving Kharkiv city shows that they want to encircle the troops in Luhansk. Same for Donesk. They will be able to capture more Ukranian troops and armed vehicles in a better way. Russian ultimatum on Mariupol city shows their interests to capture it. i.e, Regions near Sea of Azov was their one of the key objectives.