Current Status

Russia says Ukrainian forces have until 5am Moscow time (02:00 GMT) on Monday to surrender in the eastern port city of Mariupol; Kyiv rejects the demand. So real atrocity yet to begin than thought.

Foreign Media Propoganda

Any idea why these western media cries wolf? Only propogandas not even 1% of the reality.

In The Guardian
Russia’s astronauts enter the space station in yellow and blue flight suits.

Cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev said each crew picks the color of the flight suits about six months before launch because they need to be individually sewn. And since all three of them were graduates of Bauman Moscow State Technical University, they chose the colors of their prestigious alma mater.

UK Mirror
The use of the missiles is the latest sign Vladimir Putin is getting increasingly desperate as his military struggles to carry out his illegal invasion of Ukraine.

To me Russia is not desperate, rather testing their capabilities. The same news channel gives the other propoganda that Russia will invade NATO countries next. Both are 2 extreme propoganda saying on one side Russia is weak and another side Russia is aggressive and strong. They don’t even know how to propogate the propoganda news. They should learn from Indian medias.

Strategy

Russia will have the plan to even nuke Kyiv. When a war is decided, they have all the strategies on controlling the war to their favor. Time only matters for them to change the strategy. The demands in peace talks and show of strength are just to bring Ukraine to understand that Russia have the choice to win the war or make the peace. Mariupol they wont nuke, but will have a more collateral damage with the use of Grad system or Vacuum bombs and more civilian casualities expected. It may be a warning for Kyiv. Ukraine always forgets Russia is nuclear deterrant. Russian plan of leaving Kharkiv city shows that they want to encircle the troops in Luhansk. Same for Donesk. They will be able to capture more Ukranian troops and armed vehicles in a better way. Russian ultimatum on Mariupol city shows their interests to capture it. i.e, Regions near Sea of Azov was their one of the key objectives.

What can bring peace now

NATO/US/France can discuss with Zelensky to step down and possibly avoid further causalities. Move his millitary assets to Poland. But NATO countries are sending weapons, cheering Zelensky and Ukranian troops. What Ukraine needs now is not millitary aid, rather food and medicines as well as to assist in refugee crissis. They also need a quick resolution on the war. Do you think Russias concern of NATO expansion is invalid? NATO should have been dissolved after termination of WTO. NATO is just a US strategy to put Europe inbetween Russia and US. They want Russian nuclear missiles to fly first to Europe than US. Its European leaders responsibility to think and decide how to tackle Russia and NATO. They cannot afford to have the same mistake Ukranian leaders did. West says Russia is bleeding and Russian military is incapable. What Ukraine has done is only a bloody nose to Russia. Ukraine is the one bleeding badly. The damage done with collateral damage, loosing of land, military assets , troops and civilian assets cannot be compared with Russian military and troop loss. Its an unequal war West is supporting. West can influence at least Zelensky to end the war.

Ukranian people should realize they are caught in-between NATO and Russia, blaming Putin will not help. Ukraine people only over thrown pro Russian government and they are suffering now. Zelensky is a good leader from one angle only. But he put his own people and country to risk. It takes 20 years or more to come to the stage before war. Zelensky should have been neutral to West and made sure to go hand in hand with their biggest neighbour. Putin made sure he always have some reason to invade Ukraine.

Once Russia begins advance on Kyiv, there is no return for Russia. At that moment Zelensky becomes ready for accepting all demands including the surrender of lost territory, Russia may force to bring Kyiv down. Mariupol had less than 10% of troops in Kiev and more civilians got stuck and the damage Russia inflicted, shows the atrocity they will be planning on Kyiv.

Current Status of war

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Expected Kyiv offensive by 3/19. Mariupol is still defending well. Kyiv assault will be still on hold till Mariupol is in Russian hands. Reason: Like Crimea its a strategic city and Russians would like to annexe it before they end the war.
Russia is using the peace talks to make Ukraine recognize the captured regions Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk.
Peace talk is a mask by Russia. They knows the conditions will never be acceptable for Ukranians and war will continue.

Current Status of war

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Donetsk is completely captured by Russian Army. First objective of the Russian mission achieved.

Possible Russian objectives in the war

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1. Ukraine quick surrender. – didn’t work out.
2. Donetsk complete control – Done on 05/13.
3. Luhansk complete control. Encircle the troops fighting in Luhansk via Khakiv.
4. Mariupol complete control. Encircle the troops fighting in Mariupol via Volnovakha and Melitapol.
5. Full siege on Kyiv.
6. Install former Ukranian pro Russian president.

Possible war plans of Russia

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1. Conquer Ukraine fully and annexes to Russia. – probability <1%. More forces required and difficult to maintain. No local militia support like Afghan northern alliance.
2. Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and divide east and west Ukraine with Dnieper river as boundary – Probability <10% . War may go till 6 months. They will not have enough logistics and resources to support. With economic sanctions, they might have changed the plan.
3. Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and Conquer Kiev. Install pro Russian regime and keep the captured area in the east and south under Russian control – Only buffer states required. 1-1.5 months. Probability 50%.
4. Conquer Donettsk, Luhansk and Conquer Kiev. Install pro Russian regime in Kiev. Station few troops and leave the captured area in the east and south under Russian control, only keep strategic areas like Mariupol– Only buffer states required. 1-1.5 months. Probability 90%.

 Possible unexpected turns in the war

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1. Chemical weapons use. – not ruled out
2. NATO direct intervention – ruled out.

What should have triggered the war? – Original root cause apart from NATO provocation

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1. Did China given the go ahead support for Russia? – not ruled out. China may be preparing for a Taiwan invasion too if Russia achieves the plan. Introducing corona and pushing the Russia to invade Ukraine could be a possibility of response to US trade war.
2. Did US intentionally put Ukraine and Russia on war? – cannot be ruled out. They want to avoid further aid. Previous leaders took some bad decisions which Biden might be trying to fix. Doing further aid may cause US business in Iraq and Syria to fail. In Ukraine they want Russia to bleed only and not worried about the war outcome.

Attack plan in Kiev

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Possibly within 4 days. Russian troops waiting on Mariupol complete control. Complete control of Luhansk via Kharkiv can be done in parallel. If there is a delay in all-out attack on Kyiv (after 3/19), Ukranian troops defending the Mariupol city to be given the credit.

Current Status of war

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Mariapaul bombarded heavily and more collateral damage. Russia started aerial assaults and missile attacks on western parts of Ukraine targeting military bases. In Kyiv, they started targeting the areas where private houses are used to stock the weapons. Only 3 side of Kyiv are encircled. Cherniv, Khakiv, Donesk are under constant aerial attacks.

Prediction on war strategy still hold good

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Assault to Kyiv will start as soon as Mariapaul is under Russian control. Southern troop movement is not seen. I believe its media failure to cover it like southeast incoming tank convoy. 

Prediction on Russias attack plan on Kyiv

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The Russian EWS and fuel tanks are targeted by drone attacks. This can cause further delays in Kyiv attack plans. Russia can go for an all-out attack with collateral damage to get Kyiv in the planned time.

The wait on Kyiv should be a plan from Russia to minimize civilian casualties. So possibly within 6 days an all-out attack on Kyiv.

What would have happened if NATO entered the war?

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NATO could have entered the war by enforcing a no-fly zone. NATO purposefully avoided a direct confrontation with Russia. If NATO entered the war, the only option Russia was having is to nuke the Kyiv and bring Ukraine to surrender as well as force NATO to backoff from the war.

What went wrong with Russian Plan?

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Media war went in favor of Ukraine and west. Ukraine is shown upper hand in the war. Tough sanctions, Ukraine civilians taking up arms, help of CIA in making sure the weapons are delivered without Russian spy detection have made Russian plans tough and cause further delays in the war.

What went wrong with Ukraine Plan?

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Russia is nuclear deterrent, trusted US to enter into the war and support with no-fly zone like in Yugoslvia and Iraq. Knowingly Russia is nuclear armed, and Ukraine is non-nuclear, Ukraine should have gone for peace including the leadership change to be neutral.

What is US plan?

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US wants all countries to stop trade with Russia , isolate Russia and make Russian people to take up arms against Putin and get rid of Putin. I don’t think it will work with Russia. History showed a regime can be brought down only with another Regime or a weak leadership change. Russia is nuclear deterrent. So, need to wait for Putin to die or step down.

Why can’t US kill Putin?

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Unlike Iran, Russia is nuclear deterrent.

Why do you think Russia will not fail in the war?

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Russia already activated its nuclear armed forces. Supplies of food and weapons via train returned from Western Ukraine is replenishing the Ukrainians to hold the Kiev and other areas. Russia is right now targeting possible weapons depots.  Chances of Ukrainian forces from west encircling the Russian forces around Kiev is a possibility. Russia may go for all-out attack on Ukraine with collateral damage if they find Kyiv resistance is too much for a tank thrust. If that doesn’t succeed, they will follow US route in making Japan surrender. i.e, Use vacuum bombs or tactical nuclear weapons.

Where is Russian Airforce?

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Saving fuel and ammunition to destroys NATO convoy and for the final siege on Kyiv. They should be aware that weapons are delivered undetected. Mostly they might be seen back over Kyiv.

How is media helping Russians?

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Media is portraying Ukraine as a hero nation, shows up dead and captured Russian troops, ambush on tanks etc. This make the people believe Ukraine is winning the war. The intention behind the west is to demoralize Russian people and troops as well as make the stingers and javelin more demand as US wants. In every war confidentiality is a must to win the war. The videos given in the online media helps the Russian generals to understand what’s wrong with their plan and replan accordingly. Also helps them to know how Ukraine is defending. Russia is giving only proof of soldiers using civil infrastructure to attack them or store weapons. Russia didn’t expose any videos of their method of destroying Ukraine targets. Russia is getting feedback while Ukraine is not getting feedback.

What is the best US could have done?

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US could have talked to Zelensky to surrender as well as very clear on not supporting Ukraine. Installed a neutral leadership. Doing the help from behind by sending arms and cheering Ukrainian soldiers and civilians is helping the worst to happen, a more aggressive Russia. Post war also this will happen, and Ukraine will become like Afghanistan, Syria and Libya. Just a place for Russian and US insurgents to play.

Moreover, Turkey may also start influencing the country like Libya.

Why is Kamala Harris in Poland?

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One major issue with any war is refugee crisis. Poland is the worst hit and raised concern with US. She is there to handle it. Most probably US may ask other European allies to open its borders.

Prediction on war strategy still hold good

https://www.youtubetrimmer.com/view/?v=KBO13e2N-Y0&start=104&end=112&loop=0 . War is moving towards the same strategy of covering Kiev from all sides. Till now pending was south and east troop movements towards Kiev, they will also wait near the Ukraine defense setup in south and east. Some thing which I didn’t foresee early was the capture of east and south territories of Russian interests. Russia will wait for the areas they wanted to hold post war in East and South. Once that is done final assault on Kiev. If they now capture Kiev war will end soon and they cannot further capture territory of their interests.

Prediction on Russias attack plan on Kiev

The first wave should be to use jammer or electro magnetic pulses to bring all electronic equipment’s working inside Kiev to fail or not working, won’t be surprised to use some method to even blind the satellites too. Ukranian troops may not be even able to communicate each other between north, west, south and east. They have to use traditional methods of communication. It will be a complete electronic blackout in Kiev. Then will follow with precision strikes by missile and bombers, shelling and thrust of tank convoy inside Kiev from all the 4 sides. Russian satellites, drones might have already scanned the defense of Ukraine. We should see some new methods of war. One single assault on Kiev will change the way world will see how capable Russian army is. Opening for a new arms race which China and Russia will become the first mover.

Pending checklist items in Russian war plan to attack Kiev

1. Capture of Kharkiv
2. Capture of Mariapaul
3. Troops from southern side to Reach Kiev.