Tag: ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 753

As the war enters its 753rd day, these are the main developments.

Here is the situation on Sunday, March 17, 2024.


  • One person was killed and another injured in the Velykopysarivska community of Ukraine’s Sumy region, which borders Russia, according to the region’s military administration.
  • The attack was one of 60 reported shelling incidents of border territories and settlements, which damaged buildings including a hospital, kindergarten, library and a gas pipeline, Sumy officials said.
  • Earlier on Sunday, one man was killed and at least eight people were wounded in a Russian missile attack on the Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv, Ukrainian officials said, after an overnight strike on the port city of Odesa.
  • Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said his armed forces in Ukraine were “just tearing them – the enemy – apart right now”, after Russia claimed to have captured a string of towns and villages in the east of Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian shelling in the southern Russian city of Belgorod killed two people and injured eleven others, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on the Telegram messaging app.
  • Five people were also wounded when a Ukrainian drone hit a car in the village of Glotovo, some 2km (1.25 miles) from the Ukrainian border, Gladkov said.
  • The attack on Belgorod was one of many over several days of Ukrainian strikes that Moscow described as election sabotage.
  • A Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at a Russian oil refinery on Saturday, which burned for hours before it was brought under control.

Politics and diplomacy

  • President Putin has claimed victory after early election results in Russia showed he was heading for another six-year term with some 87 percent of the vote.
  • Responding to the results, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Putin a “dictator”, “sick from power” and “doing everything he can to rule forever”.
  • Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, who died in a Russian prison colony last month, said, “Obviously I wrote Navalny’s name” on the ballot, after she voted in the Russian Embassy in  Berlin.
  • Rights group Amnesty International has decried Russia’s attempts “to alter the ethnic makeup” of Crimea by suppressing Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar identities. “These policies appear to be a blueprint for Russia’s designs on other areas of Ukraine it occupies,” Amnesty said. Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.


Here is the situation on Saturday, March 16, 2024.


  • Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelenskyy has condemned a Russian missile attack on the Black Sea port city of Odesa in which at least 21 people were killed and 75 wounded.
  • Zelenskyy said Russia would receive a “fair response” from Ukrainian forces for what he called a “vile” strike on a city that has been attacked by Russian drones or missiles almost every day this month.
  • Ukrainian authorities have begun mass evacuations of communities in the northern Sumy region, close to the Russian border, after extended periods of intense shelling of the area, local officials said.
  • Ukrainian drones struck two oil refineries belonging to Russian state-owned oil giant Rosneft in Samara region, Governor Dmitry Azarov said on Telegram.
  • There were no casualties but the Volga river region’s Syzran refinery was on fire, he said, while an attack on the Novokuibyshevsk refinery was thwarted.
  • Russia’s President Vladimir Putin promised to punish Ukraine for what he said was election day shelling that struck civilian targets on Russian territory. Russians are voting in elections that end on Sunday, with Putin widely expected to win a fifth term.

Politics and diplomacy

  • Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, said elections in the Russian-occupied regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Crimea, which Russia invaded and annexed in 2014, were “illegitimate”.
  • “Holding elections in another UN member state’s territory without its consent is in manifest disregard for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Such elections have no validity under international law,” Kyslytsya said in a joint statement with European Union countries, the United States, the United Kingdom and other nations.
  • A UN commission of inquiry on Ukraine said it had gathered more evidence that Russia has systematically tortured Ukrainian prisoners of war, through rape threats and the use of electric shocks on genitals. Some Ukrainian prisoners were so hungry in Russian detention centres that they resorted to eating soap, worms and leftover dog food, the report said.
  • The Group of Seven (G7) countries warned Iran against providing ballistic missiles to Russia to use in its war against Ukraine and said it would “respond swiftly” with new sanctions, including possibly banning Iran Air from Europe.
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosted French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Berlin for urgent discussions on how best to support Ukraine, which is short on the military resources needed to definitively halt Russia’s invasion.

Russia – Ukraine war – 06/05/22(101/120 days) 90 days is culminating point for Russian phase2 strategy of capturing Donbas.


Overall 20% land lost by Ukraine. 80% in Luhansk and 50% in Donetsk. More damage happening to Ukraine due to lack of long range weapons. US and allies now trying to balance the war with long range weapons. War is now concentrated over Severodonetsk. Remaining major Luhansk city. The winning strategy in this war is not on how many weapons or soldiers lost, its how much land and infrastructure you lost.

Possible Outcomes(More likely to less likely)

  1. Russia may decide to stop the war after capturing Severodonetsk and decide to hold on the 20%. War will continue under the hood like how it was from 2014 to 2021. Once the long range weapons are delivered to Ukraine, Ukraine will have the upper hand to create a stalemate in Donbas. Next possible solution to end the war for Russia is threatening to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or chinese invasion on Taiwan. As all of us knows US cannot share nuclear weapons to Ukraine.
  2. Putin thrown out. I doubt it will not happen as foreign media claims. Putin is converting the economic sanctions to gains. More over world and Russian people knows the involvement of NATO in the war and the period of 1990 – 2008 how some countries were destroyed by NATO. Majority of Russians may consider Putin as their savior.
  3. Phase 2 to continue for few more months/years and the entire Donbas is captured. Less likely. I doubt Russia will repeat Afghanistan in Ukraine.

Other possible areas of development

  1. Ukraine may launch a full offense on Kherson.

What needs to be filtered from media

Media shows only Ukraine hitting with pin point accuracy. Russia using conventional ways. What we see is only one side of the war. Most of the Russian media propoganda remains inside Russia. The way Russia attack is to cover all 3 sides and capture the supply lines and then capture them as a whole. Since technology is advanced Ukraine soldiers are able to escape on timely manner.
Within one month of war the propoganda was talking about Russia out of ammunitions. Russia is just capturing Ukraine ammunitions and handing over to soldiers in Donbas and not deperate on ammunitions. I see the Russian strategy of leaving Kiev and holding on to Donbas is working well. The Russian declaration of ending the war is nearby.

Russia – Ukraine war – 04/18/22(54/120 days) 90 days is culminating point for Russian new strategy of capturing Donbas.

Russia still have the opportunity to use tactical nuclear weapons. I still believe there is something big to happen. Like Taiwan invasion or nuclear or chemical weapon use. There will be a major twist to war were Ukraine will blame on US for backstabbing towards the end of the war.

For Putin, meeting his goals is his ultimate objectives. He don’t care how many equipment’s destroyed or troops killed. For Russia its show off power, control of the region and clearing the arsenal to make way for the new are the priorities in the war. For US its a business in the name of protection they right now might have got lot of orders from other Russian neighbors including Japan. Why didn’t US asked its allies to send patriots instead of S300? If it gets destroyed, their business plans will get impacted. Ukraine is the scapegoat of this war. So if Russia wants to end the war, they can either create a new flash point which is of more interest for US(e.g:- Taiwan) or bring the war to abruptly end via tactical nuclear weapon use. Their priority is Donbas and securing Crimea permanently. Once that is achieved only we will know what are their phase 3 plans. Since Ukraine lost a lot of territory Russia is already into a long term war where they need to change the strategy again after the phase 2 culminating point (~90 days). So they can end the war with a strategy which will end the US interests in Ukraine. The threats from Russia to baltic area is just a mockery. Even if Finland and Sweden joins NATO, Russia will not attack them as they already have nuclear weapons in baltic area. Finland/Sweden cannot be compared to Ukraine w.r.t Russia’s interest. At least my prediction on culminating point for 40 days went correct as Russia changed the strategy in ~38 days instead of a stalemate or more loss than advantages. Russia moved out of Kyiv and changed strategy on Donbas only. The recent disclosure from the Chechniyan leader points that Russia has intentions to get Kyiv and remaining part also conquered. So a phase 3 is also expected.

“Russia shot down a cargo plane carrying foreign aid weapons sent to Ukraine over Odesha” That’s the power of S-400. Striking at enemy aircraft from your own controlled territory. Possibly Moskva sunk by a foreign made anit-ship missile than Neptune. If it was Neptune they don’t need 50 days to try.

Russia – Ukraine war – 04/06/22(42/120 days)

The war is going to a critical phase. Russia retreated after the culminating point(40 days). There is a change in strategy to concentrate on offense in Donbas while defending in the south. The crux of the Russia-Ukraine war is Donbas. NATO was providing lot of weapons from 2014, which Ukraine was using in Donbas. I guess Russia is now concerned about defending the south and trying to take full control of Donbas. The Russian retreat still looks fishy. There is something more damage planned on Kyiv. This may cause the war to enter more deadly phase with NATO getting more weapons to Ukraine and hitting Russian position inside Russia. Russia can create a fake chemical attack and nuke the Kyiv to bring the war under their control and to make NATO go one step back.

Russia – Ukraine war – 04/04/22(40/120 days)

Last week Russia said they will lessen the attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv.
This week Russian troops retreat, so it was a deception attack or to frighten Ukraine. They could have done heavy bombing on Kyiv, but the attacks were less other than some show off.
There was genocide on Bucha area. Most I believe due to heavy fighting. There are instances of purposeful killing civilians too which Russia denies. Possibly they might have challenged the Russian soldiers.
Russia has setup mines to make the recovery more difficult to Ukraine.
To me Russia has changed its strategy on Kyiv. I suspect they are plannig for more devastating attack as one of their major goal of removing Zelensky is not achieved. I suspect with Russian forces retreated, the Kyiv is wide open for a chemical, biological or tactical nuclear strike.
Russia knows they need to sacrifice a lot of troops and equipment’s for capturing Kyiv. So I presume this is a tactical move by Russia. A potential Russian strike on Russian army or city with chemical weapons by Russia, claiming Ukraine attack and a nuclear response strike is a possible chance to end the war in favor of Russia.

Russia – Ukraine war – 03/30/22(35/120 days) – Revised from 40 days to 120 days.

  • Phase 1 of operations over as per Russia. Now concentrating on Donbas.
  • Russia pledged to reduce the attacks in Kyiv and Cherniv as part of truce meeting. i.e, Donbas can expect more attacks.
  • Russian arm depot inside Russia is hit with a strategic missile strike. Its interesting how they were able to defeat S-400. Did Ukraine received Cruise missiles? Was there any relation with Indian accidental missile strike? It might be to test the S-400 missiles vulnerabilities than Pakistan defense. Possible chance.
  • Real offense troops for the Kyiv is still hiding in Belarus border. The stalled convoy is to setup defense around Kyiv.
  • I have 100% confidence Putin wants to remove Zelensky out of the power.
  • Zelensky is now in a situation he cannot go for truce without giving up Crimea and Donbas as well as getting killed or captured. He has to fight to his last blood.